Wall Street Wants SpaceX

The IPO Everyone Is Waiting For

“CRS-20 Dragon–Enhanced.jpg.” Wikimedia Commons, Wikimedia Foundation, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CRS-20_Dragon%E2%80%93Enhanced.jpg. Accessed 18 May 2026.

There are very few companies that can command attention from Silicon Valley, Washington, the defense industry, institutional investors and retail traders all at the same time. SpaceX is one of them.

For years, Wall Street has speculated about the possibility of a SpaceX initial public offering. While Elon Musk has historically resisted taking the company public, anticipation surrounding a future listing continues to grow as private valuations climb and the company expands far beyond its original identity as a rocket manufacturer.

Increasingly, investors are beginning to view SpaceX less as an aerospace company and more as a strategic infrastructure platform that sits at the intersection of telecommunications, defense, artificial intelligence, logistics and national security.

That distinction is one of the primary reasons many investors believe a future SpaceX IPO could become the largest public offering in financial history.

Recent private market transactions have reportedly valued SpaceX at approximately $350 billion, placing it among the most valuable private companies in the world.¹ Yet many investors believe the company's ultimate value could be significantly higher if Starlink, Starship and future orbital infrastructure initiatives continue scaling successfully.

The excitement stems from a simple reality. Very few companies have simultaneously dominated an existing market while creating entirely new ones.

SpaceX currently operates the world's most active launch business. According to BryceTech, the company accounted for the overwhelming majority of global orbital launch mass in recent years.² Falcon 9 has fundamentally altered launch economics through reusability while Starlink has become the largest satellite communications network ever deployed.

What investors increasingly see is a company that appears to be building foundational infrastructure for the next era of technological growth.

Peter Rubino, Founder and CEO of Seraphim Aerospace, believes this is precisely why public markets could eventually assign SpaceX a historic valuation. Peter Rubino argues that the company should not be viewed solely through the lens of launch revenue because it increasingly operates more like industrial infrastructure than a traditional aerospace business.

Rubino points to the company's influence across communications, defense, manufacturing cadence and access to space. Few companies in history have simultaneously reshaped multiple industries while still remaining in an aggressive growth phase. That perspective is becoming increasingly common among institutional investors.

Historically, markets have awarded the highest valuations to companies that create platforms rather than products. Microsoft became infrastructure for software. Amazon became infrastructure for ecommerce and cloud computing. Nvidia became infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Many investors now believe SpaceX is attempting to become infrastructure for the space economy.

Rubino also highlights the company's unusual level of vertical integration and long horizon execution discipline. The company designs engines, builds rockets, manufactures satellites, operates launch facilities and controls major portions of its own supply chain. Investors often reward businesses capable of controlling critical infrastructure because those systems become increasingly difficult for competitors to replicate. Starlink alone has fueled substantial optimism.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas previously estimated that Starlink could eventually generate tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue while becoming one of the largest telecommunications businesses in the world.³ Unlike traditional satellite operators, Starlink benefits from SpaceX controlling both launch capability and satellite deployment. That integration dramatically improves economics while accelerating network expansion.

Yet for many investors, Starlink is only part of the story. The larger opportunity revolves around Starship. If Falcon 9 reduced launch costs, Starship aims to redefine what is economically possible in space altogether. The vehicle is designed to transport unprecedented amounts of cargo into orbit while dramatically reducing cost per kilogram. If successful, entirely new industries could emerge around that capability.

Guy de Carufel, Founder and CEO of Cognitive Space, believes the market opportunity extends far beyond current revenue streams. Guy de Carufel argues that SpaceX's ambitions involve expanding access to resources beyond Earth's limitations while creating entirely new economic systems in orbit and beyond.

De Carufel notes that concepts like orbital data centers, lunar infrastructure and asteroid resource development may sound ambitious today, but so did reusable rockets years ago. He believes investors increasingly value SpaceX based on its ability to repeatedly achieve objectives that many competitors initially considered unrealistic.

This long term vision is one reason many investors remain comfortable assigning valuations that traditional financial models struggle to justify.

SpaceX has become one of the rare companies where investors are not merely valuing existing cash flows. They are valuing optionality.

William Kemp, Founder of Aethon Space, believes Starship could eventually become the gateway to an entirely new economic layer beyond Earth. William Kemp argues that dramatically lower launch costs could unlock industries measured in trillions of dollars while reducing dependence on terrestrial economic constraints. Kemp's view reflects a growing belief among space industry leaders that launch economics represent only the first stage of a much larger transformation.

Dylan Taylor, CEO of Voyager Technologies and one of the most respected investors in commercial space, has repeatedly emphasized how rapidly the industry is evolving. Taylor predicts humans could establish meaningful lunar infrastructure before the end of the decade and believes permanent activity on the Moon may become visible within the 2030s. His broader observation is perhaps even more important. “Space has never been hotter.”

The data supports that statement. According to the Space Foundation, the global space economy surpassed $570 billion in 2023 and continues expanding rapidly as governments and private investors increase spending across communications, defense, earth observation, transportation and exploration.⁴ SpaceX sits at the center of nearly every one of those trends. Not everyone approaches the company's future with pure optimism.

Brian Wang, Founder of NextBigFuture, has suggested that a future SpaceX IPO could initially be priced between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion before potentially trading significantly higher in public markets. Wang believes future AI infrastructure, orbital computing and off world industrial activity could become major growth drivers.

At the same time, Wang has cautioned investors not to become blinded by narratives. He notes that whenever a private company enters public markets, scrutiny intensifies around disclosures, financial structure, capital allocation and operating economics. Public investors ultimately demand transparency that private markets often tolerate without the same level of examination.

That tension may become one of the defining dynamics of any future SpaceX offering.

The company has built enormous goodwill through execution. Yet public markets eventually require even visionary businesses to justify expectations through measurable financial performance. Still, many investors remain confident because of one factor above all others. Elon Musk.

Whatever criticism surrounds him, Musk has repeatedly accomplished objectives that many experts considered impossible. Tesla transformed electric vehicles. SpaceX transformed launch economics. Starlink became the world's largest satellite internet constellation.

Abhi Yerra, Founder of opsZero, captures the perspective shared by many supporters. Yerra argues that regardless of public opinion surrounding Musk personally, his ability to engineer solutions to highly complex problems is difficult to dispute. That reputation continues influencing investor confidence.

Harvard Business School research has often highlighted how transformational companies generate value by altering industry economics rather than simply competing within existing frameworks.⁵

SpaceX appears to fit that model. Reusable rockets changed launch economics. Starlink is reshaping satellite communications. Starship could potentially alter the economics of transportation beyond Earth itself. That is why so many investors continue watching closely. The excitement surrounding a future SpaceX IPO is not merely about another high growth technology company entering public markets.

It is about the possibility that investors could finally gain access to a company many believe is helping build the infrastructure layer of the next industrial era. Whether that offering happens in the near future remains uncertain.What is becoming increasingly clear, however, is that many on Wall Street are already treating SpaceX as though it is inevitable. And if that day ever arrives, the company may not simply become the largest IPO in history.

It may become one of the most important.

Works Cited

1. Foust, Jeff. “SpaceX Tender Offer Values Company at About $350 Billion.” SpaceNews, Dec. 2024, https://spacenews.com.

2. BryceTech. 2024 Global Space Launch Report. BryceTech, 2024, https://brycetech.com.

3. Jonas, Adam. “SpaceX and the Emerging Space Economy.” Morgan Stanley Research, https://www.morganstanley.com.

4. Space Foundation. The Space Report 2024. Space Foundation, 2024, https://www.spacefoundation.org.

5. Harvard Business School. “How Disruptive Companies Reshape Industry Economics.” Harvard Business School Publishing, https://www.hbs.edu.

6. NASA. “Commercial Crew and Launch Services Partnerships.” National Aeronautics and Space Administration, https://www.nasa.gov.

7. Musk, Elon. “Making Life Multiplanetary.” SpaceX, https://www.spacex.com.

8. Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation. “The Economics of Commercial Space.” Stanford University, https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu